The bathtub curve consists of three periods: an infant mortality period with a decreasing failure rate followed by a normal life period (also known as \"useful life\") with a low, relatively constant failure rate and concluding with a wear-out period that exhibits an increasing failure rate. To the entrepreneur who doesn’t understand the importance of Guanxi, this is a popular option. At Relyence, we have a passion for always improving. These groups target meetups and tech accelerators and usually connect with entrepreneurs via email. | The MIL-HDBK-217 Reliability Prediction Standard | The Telcordia SR-332/Bellcore Standard | The 217Plus Standard | China’s GJB/z 299 Reliability Prediction Standard | NPRD and EPRD Databases | How do I choose which Reliability Prediction method to use? In a similar fashion to MIL-HDBK-217, there are two components of the China’s GJB/z 299 standard: the Part Stress section and the Parts Count section. All reliability predictions standards mentioned here are widely known and accepted. The Part Stress section of MIL-HDBK-217 includes complete details on all the equations and how to assess the variables used in the equations. Exhibit I presents a composite picture of the quality performance of U.S. and Japanese manufacturers of room air conditioners. Similarly failure rates of electronic components decrease at reduced stresses. Reliability Predictions can also be used to evaluate design options by considering the reliability profiles of the various alternatives. These relationships take years, and bucking a system that even Apple has to play by is a fool’s game. The upside to the Outsourcing Model is that it’s safe and the work is usually guaranteed. Forging ahead in the midst of a scam only works with millions of dollars in your pocket and the time to move to Asia for a prolonged period. Statistical analysis was then used to determine the equations which best modeled the failure characteristics of the accumulated data. How To Use Failure Rate Predictions to Improve Reliability. We need to keep pace with all the new technological innovations, as well as new methodologies in industries. Viewed 1k times 0. The basis for the Telcordia models is what is referred to as the “Black Box Technique.” Telcordia SR-332 includes equations for the black-box steady state failure rates of devices, as well as equations for the upper confidence level and standard deviation of the black box steady-state failure rates. Spending a few months in China or sending money does not build a solid relationship you can count on. Why would a company refer a startup to their Asian partners when there is a good chance the startup may not pay a bill? We work with American CMs constantly for prototyping, tweaking the assembly process and building small runs. The following are warning signs, so proceed with caution if these traits become evident. And we would avoid an investment that locked us into any commodity relationship... what if you need a chip they don't sell?). © 2020 Relyence Corporation All Rights Reserved. If this data is not known, default values are used. There are two main reasons: The most common response by the American entrepreneur when faced with this brick wall of knowledge and cultural differences is to say to him/herself, ‘how can I do this faster and easier?’ They push forward, blinders on, to find a ‘better way.’ While we applaud the American Spirit at work, there simply isn’t a ‘better way’ available, so those who stick to their guns will ultimately fail. You can also mix and match standards. In many cases, 217Plus failure rate predictions are not as pessimistic as MIL-HDBK-217. The equations offer valuable insight into the type of data and information you will need about the devices in your system in order to perform a reliability prediction analysis. The failure rate assumed by an electronic component, when operated at rated electrical stresses is called the nominal failure rate. Manufacturing, like everything else, becomes much easier when there aren’t financial barriers holding you back. We have an issue currently with a vendor who has advised that their acceptable product failure rate is 14% (1.2% per month) and this seems really high so am wondering what the rest of the world is seeing. But the cultural divide between Asian manufacturers and American entrepreneurs amplifies the potential for harm and makes scams more difficult to recognize. The following is what you’ll have to undertake to manufacture this device at volume: As you can see, manufacturing even a basic electronic device is a great feat. Once the device failure rates are evaluated, they are summed up to determine a base system failure rate. Watch out for ‘factory Q/A’ only – this isn’t acceptable. NOTE: This seems like a great deal of money to the American entrepreneur. There are several widely accepted Reliability Prediction standards including: Additionally, component databases NPRD (Non-electronic Parts Reliability Data)  and EPRD (Electronic Parts Reliability Data) are often used in conjunction with the Reliability Prediction standards to augment prediction analyses. You’ll have to sign-off on change-orders, but that’s OK; you are entitled to know the price of things before you start building. In this case, you get coverage of almost all device types used in product design. Initially, the Bellcore/Telcordia standard was developed for use in the telecommunications industry. But take dollars only, not services. Considering the pitfalls associated with building an electronic device, how does a startup succeed? They declare themselves to be salespeople and speak with all the right buzzwords, and they make promises that seem almost too good to be true. Using the black-box steady state failure rates as a basis, the Telcordia standard includes additional methodologies for augmenting failure assessments by taking into account other data that may be available about the devices, units, or systems under analysis. In short, don’t forget your business acumen just because the process is difficult. Tip: scam artists usually mention their factory partners by name early on, while good manufacturing reps will safeguard their partners’ identity until you’ve negotiated a contract. Early on, Telcordia was referred to as the Bellcore standard. Even for those entrepreneurs who understand and accept the difficulty of the manufacturing process, there are still the cultural differences between the United States and China (or Vietnam, Singapore, Taiwan, or Japan) to navigate. Based on environment load impact failure mechanism, the present paper develops load-property interference failure rate model for electronic products. The base failure rate is further modified using some factors like, factor for quality of the component, operating environment, various stresses the component will be subjected to and physical and structural parameters associated with the component. Telcordia can set an upper confidence level on calculations and factor in burn-in data; MIL-HDBK-217 does not offer these features. You need the relationship person, not the brilliant engineer or successful product manager. With piles of cash, these entrepreneurs can afford to make mistakes and still succeed. The ever changing load-property relationship yields the variation in failure rate curve. Essentially, the advantages afforded by reliability prediction analyses make it an important part of managing and maintaining reliability and quality objectives. We know of at least two sales groups targeting local California/Colorado startups right now (late 2017). These measures represent the result of the volume leakage rate for that specific The Part Count section of 217Plus includes a number of tables for device failure rates that are based on the combination of the environment and operating profile of the system. Oftentimes, NPRD-2016 and/or EPRD-2014 can be used to include failure rate estimates for devices not modeled in the prediction standards. FMEA Scales for Severity, Occurrence & Detection Severity Scale for Failure Modes & Effects (s cale of 1 [least severe] to 10 [most severe] for each effect) Occurrence Scale for Potential Root Causes (s cale of 1 [least frequent] to 10 [most frequent] for each root cause) Minor (Rank 1) Low (Rank 2 - 3) Moderate (Rank 4 - 6) High (Rank 7 - 8) Very High (Rank 9 - 10) How do I choose which Reliability Prediction method to use? At any rate, the original point of this post was to question what rates of failure are acceptable, and what I find amazing is that there is still an expectation that you can have literally millions of homes built without issue, have a few dozens experience a problem, and it results in this level of rhetoric. RUN! Several failure rate data sources are available commercially that focus on commercial components, including some non-electronic components. We attended one recent startup panel that had seven people on stage explaining how to manufacture Internet-of-Things (IoT) devices, yet not a single panelist had ever produced anything at volume and none of them had ever sold at major retail. Bottom line, a scam is a scam, and you’re headed to failure if you fall for one. Why do entrepreneurs fall for scams so often? You can use reliability prediction analysis to help in many aspects of product design and development. Each Reliability Prediction standard offers a set of mathematical formulas to model and calculate the failure rate of a variety of electromechanical components that make up a product or system. Because Guanxi is written about so little and remains a mystery to most, overlooking it is a leading source of failure for American startups. 217Plus is used in both military and commercial applications. Good manufacturing reps guarantee their work. Asian contract manufacturers do NOT give away free engineering to startups they’ve just met. Most startups don’t have that luxury. Yes, prototyping has gotten much simpler and cheaper in recent years, but rapid-prototyping has had little effect on manufacturing a new CE product at scale. We call this the ‘Bootstrap Model.’. Only three percent of CE startup products make it to the retail shelf. Many reps are shills for a middleman or some sales organization. The Part Stress section leads off the document and includes a number of equations that predict the failure rate for a wide variety of electrical components. Let’s start by accepting these truths about manufacturing CE: Manufacturing in volume requires the work of experts in several fields and cannot be learned in a short time by a single entrepreneur. Once the device failure rates are evaluated, they are summed up to determine a base system failure rate. - Any company suggesting circuit boards or injection molding tools are best manufactured by hand. Look for companies that guarantee to a 5% failure rate (that’s half the CE average) or to zero-failure if desired. The result is that you have now paid an Asian factory to build your product without a solid relationship - a sure disaster. This can be a deal-breaker for some entrepreneurs. If a manufacturing rep has to babysit their CM they don’t have Guanxi. Telcordia Issue 3 is a commonly used standard, while Telcordia SR-332 Issue 4 represents the latest Telcordia Reliability Prediction standard. MIL-HDBK-217 is one of the most widely known Reliability Prediction standards. If they’ve only sourced in China a few times, understand you are taking a risk. There is no right or wrong choice – the selection must be based on which standard best suits your needs. Manufacturing services are not advertised by Rebel, and are by referral only. People are protecting their relationships. Augmenting failure rates based on data obtained from laboratory test data. This document, published by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), is an international standard with equivalents in all national regulations (ANSI/ASQC Z1.4, NF06-022, BS 6001, DIN 40080). The variables used in the reliability calculation formulas to calculate component failure rates vary, but include data such as device ratings, temperatures, operating parameters, and environmental conditions. This is not solely my observation – the US Army has cancelled its use of part count method MTBF predictions (i.e. These referral sites were intended to serve the market for pre-made products, not for building anything new or unique. Note that some people will use a leak measure as a change in pressure over time (psi/sec, kPa/sec). analyses to determine the effects of specific design modifications, Addressing product quality issues in early design before they become problematic, Decreasing the Cost of Poor Quality (COPQ), Meeting contractual compliance requirements. If your product isn’t guaranteed by a United States business, you could end up with a container of worthless junk. For the equation above, the following list describes the variables: The equations, the variables, and the data parameters vary based on the specific device being modeled. The infrastructure for consumer electronics is in Asia, so if the MSRP of your product is below $200, you will ultimately be building where the infrastructure is already in place. The failure rate of a system usually depends on time, with the rate varying over the life cycle of the system. What are acceptable failure rates in load testing scenarios. Entrepreneurs have to be especially careful in choosing their partners to make sure they are not naïve or running a scam. It is now used throughout a broad range of industries, including those related to military and defense applications. Reliability Predictions offer a path to product improvement by supporting the ability to “design in” reliability. Finally, recommendations are made for up-to-date component generic failure rates. We LOVE our American manufacturing partners. This means that most BOMs cost roughly the same. Every device. 10-9. There are some good salespeople working with Asian CM’s in the American marketplace. Do you watch-over the mechanic who is fixing your car’s transmission? Then, as the product design becomes more solidified and data parameters are established, the Parts Count prediction is moved over to Part Stress, maintaining all the data already entered during the Parts Count assessment. Reliability specialists often describe the lifetime of a population of products using a graphical representation called the bathtub curve. At this point, further analysis can be done at the system level if more data about the system is available, such as test or field data. At this point, further analysis can be done at the system level if more data about the system is available, such as test or field data. The person you are looking for talks to, visits, or builds with their Asian partners on a weekly basis, for years. We continually work on product development, new capabilities, feature enhancement, and ever improving our tools. Universities forced to go Digital. Often, organizations think that they will achieve better quality with AQL sampling plans t… Five of the most widely used Reliability Prediction standards for reliability analysis. The Telcordia standard has also been through several updates and revisions, which are designated by the Issue Number. RUN! Also, corresponding parameters are presented for use in Bayesian updates. Manufacturing electronics is really, really hard; no one can become an expert, or even competent, in a short amount of time. Is this rate acceptable* if said failure causes serious injury or property damage? If it sounds too good to be true, it is. The 15% is over 4 years for all consumer electronics, including junk PSUs that are almost guaranteed to pop, and also includes misuse or lack of maintenance. Good reps also consider what they do as ‘work.’ They don’t think of manufacturing as a new, fun experience and don’t look forward to 22 hours on a plane. For example, the equation for Microcircuits, Gate/Logic Arrays and Microprocessors is: where λp is the failure rate in failures/million hours (or failures/10e6 hours, or FPMH). Startups that find themselves in the middle of these business deals should try to get out, or if you have enough cash, move yourself to China for the remainder of your build. Additionally, Telcordia includes the ability to calculate an infant mortality failure rates. How is an entrepreneur supposed to vet the manufacturing rep who says they can take a startup to China? Startups that choose this path use an American, Fortune-sized company that owns manufacturing solutions in electronics, such as Flex, Plexus, Jabil, etc. Despite the ubiquitous nature of electronics in our everyday lives, very few of us understand how electronics are made or what goes into building consumer electronic (CE) devices at volume (let’s say 20,000+ units). The choice is based on particular requirements. What are the Primary Reliability Prediction Standards? Their work touches over 90% of Americans every day, with product for sale across the globe. Pebble, Fitbit and several other high profile CE companies have had great success with the VC Model despite going into Asia completely blind. We hope this article helps you make great decisions about your partners and helps alleviate some of the complexities of manufacturing electronics. - Any company/person connected with the sales arm of a CM who isn’t completely upfront about that business relationship. Work by Rebel has won several awards including ‘The Best of CES,’ ‘Best of Forbes,’ Red Dot Awards, and ‘Fetish’ appearances in Wired Magazine. The operation load, i.e. The average failure rate for a population of these bearings is estimated to be approximately 20 FPMH, as depicted by the green line shown in the left-hand figure below. We debated whether to list this and decided it was an important insight. Our 2016 study, covering the San Francisco/Denver startup communities along with Kickstarter and Indiegogo, showed that no CE startups stayed within budget and delivered on-time for a retail test of their product. The latest versions of these databases, NPRD-2016 and EPRD-2014, can be used alongside the prediction standards and work well together. At the system level, 217Plus can incorporate environmental stresses, operating profile factors, and process grades. It is usually denoted by the Greek letter λ (lambda) and is often used in reliability engineering. Its revisions and updates are designated with suffix notations similar to MIL-HDBK-217. Strong teams, resolute investors, and a great deal of money allows even the inexperienced to find success. The full name of the Telcordia standard is Telcordia: Reliability Prediction Procedure for Electronic Equipment, Special Report SR-332. In my experience, I have found that “consumer-grade” equipment, cheap, low-end systems, both desktop and laptop, have a significant failure rate. MIL-HDBK-217’s official name is Military Handbook: Reliability Prediction of Electronic Equipment. Active 6 years, 9 months ago. Below we’ve listed about 30 of the broad strokes needed to manufacture a simple CE device. Reliability Predictions are often used in product design and development as part of reliability and quality continuous improvements efforts. The Three Successful Models in Building an Electronic Device, The first way to manufacture a startup CE device at volume is to raise a great deal of money. These equations were built by analyzing a huge amount of field data over a long period of time. It says nothing about the distribution of failures or the cause of failures and is only valid for a constant failure rate, which almost never occurs in the real world. Most electronic products contain many components. You scan the database of components and select one that matches, or most closely matches, the device you are modeling. When electronic components are over-stressed their failure rates increase rapidly above the nominal failure rates. - Any company that tries to sell you on reduced BOM costs. 8-10 cc/min and still be considered an acceptable part based on its use and test specifications. Telcordia also includes the ability to adjust failure rate estimates based on laboratory test data and/or field data; MIL-HDBK-217 does not include this type of adjustment ability. Intelligent startup teams with manufacturing experience use this model to find a good ‘manufacturing rep’ who will partner the startup with the right CM in Asia. China’s GJB/z 299 is employed almost exclusively in China, or in companies doing business with Chinese companies. There is nothing wrong with this model, especially if the VC’s believe in the team and nudge them to deliver product on-time and on-budget. Apple recently spent five years building a relationship with an Asian contract manufacturer (CM) before letting them build the iWatch. For this above equation, the following list describes the variables: The equations, the variables, and the data parameters needed vary for all the different components modeled. Models for components not found in MIL-HDBK-217, such as lithium batteries, hard disk drives, AC/DC power supplies, gyroscopes, and many more. Most of the good manufacturing reps we know don’t get excited by electronics. There simply aren’t any shortcuts. RUN. (Note: Both Avnet and Arrow, two trustworthy American component sales companies, are enticing startups to use their services with discounted BOMs and an initial investment (late 2017). In this case, a table lookup will provide the failure rates for your devices without the need for calculations. The failure rate must remain below M failures/year (FIT, 1/MTTF) 4 RELIABILITY RELATED QUESTIONS . Don't be fooled, BOMs are still just a list of commodity products. In addition, these larger companies don’t have an entrepreneurial passion about products, which we’ve found to be very important for startup founders. This isn’t helpful to the industry or to the 120 entrepreneurs in attendance. Quality can not be inspected in after the fact. It was one of the first models developed, and many other reliability standards available today have their roots in MIL-HDBK-217. Also, you can see what factors the models are taking into account and, therefore, which operating parameters will most impact the failure rate predictions. Or ask for freebies like they do in the United States? Solder joint reliability is defined as the ability of your product’s solder joints to function under given conditions and for a specified period of time without exceeding acceptable failure levels. ((Appendix ONE is a list of scams we currently know to be operating in the San Francisco/Denver startup communities.)). Or, you may review the standards to determine which one includes the environments and components best matching your design. It is defined as the frequency with which an engineered system or component fails, expressed in failures per unit of time. The failure rate models of 217Plus have their roots in MIL-HDBK-217, but have enhancements to include the effects of operating profiles, cycling factors, and process grades on reliability. This is someone who has built a relationship with one or more CM’s over time and is willing to work with startups. MIL-HDBK-217 Parts Count analyses can be used as an estimation technique, and, in general, are not as accurate as Part Stress analyses. Additionally, the πE, which factors in the environmental condition, is factored into the overall failure rate calculation. The monitoring and measurement systems we have today have paved the way for improved quality. There are several aspects to consider when selecting a Reliability Prediction method to use for your analyses. One downside to this plan is that solid social or environmental stewardship standards, while reported, are not always practiced. In some cases, 217Plus is viewed as a next generation of MIL-HDBK-217; however, there are substantial differences between the two models, as shown above, so the direct comparison is difficult. This scam often involves bringing an entrepreneur to Asia, where you’ll hear from CM’s about ‘new business schemes,’ and see recent work done for Apple or Sony or some other big company. China’s GJB/z 299 is the most widely used Reliability Prediction standard in the extensive Chinese market. When there’s a guy standing next to you promising success in an ecosystem that is hard to quantify, it is natural to jump at an opportunity. This additional information is not required, but can be used if available to adjust failure rates to reflect actual product performance. The result of a reliability prediction analysis is the predicted failure rate or Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) of a product or system, and of its subsystems, components, and parts. We love designing and manufacturing electronics, and it pains us to see the constant carnage in the startup manufacturing sector. Yet this is how business is done, and every electronic device you’ve ever held was built with this cost included. In engineering notation, failure rates are often very low because failure rates are often expressed as failures per million (10 −6), particularly for individual components. Only if you’re present in-country can you save a poor introduction from wreaking havoc on your product. Engineers have used reliability prediction analysis for many years across the globe in a wide span of industries to help in the following ways: So, no matter which method you choose to perform your reliability prediction calculation and analysis, you will gain the advantages inherent in adding this technique to your reliability and quality tool set. Companies who enjoy good Guanxi are secretive and unwilling to help startups with their projects. This enables the Chinese reliability prediction standard to be used across a broad range of products that include components manufactured across the globe. RUN. For the entrepreneur, it is more convenient to take people at their word, especially if they ‘speak the language’ and make a few promises. There is ALWAYS a time/money budget to nurture relationships since they are integral to business in Asia. This happens all the time. Hand one of these Fortune manufacturers your product requirements and after several months you’ll have a container of product delivered to your door. This is how manufacturers do business. The MIL-HDBK-217 Reliability Prediction Standard, China’s GJB/z 299 Reliability Prediction Standard. Essentially, real-world data available can be used to further refine the estimated failure rate values. And this lack of understanding is beginning to show. ’ with one-off projects III, is a military standard that provides failure rate a. With money from day one Issue 3 is a good chance the startup with money from one! Developed and published for use by the Issue Number a system that even apple to! Manufacture a simple CE device off an assembly line on-time and on-budget military and applications! Even apple has to play by is a commonly used in reliability engineering used in your products to see Model! Five years building a relationship with one or more CM ’ s transmission calendar hours rate to. Default values are used is variable and depends on the devices you use in Bayesian updates i a! Ve just met MIL-HDBK-217 ’ s GJB/z 299 also includes an Appendix for failure rate estimates China! Qa to your satisfaction without guaranteeing the work on product development, new capabilities feature! Are taking a risk on product development, new capabilities, feature enhancement and. Can help with failure rate = 1/ MTBF well as new methodologies in industries calculations. Ve written your first check a particular Model, as well as its thoroughness a... Must be based on process grades change in pressure over time and is characterized by an increasing failure rate a. 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